UA’s Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Returns: Is the Sky the Limit?

As summer unfolds, football remains a distant attraction, while recent hockey and basketball championships have concluded. However, baseball isn’t the only game in town; the University of Arizona has reintroduced an engaging competition centered on the summer monsoon.

The Monsoon Fantasy Forecast returns for its fifth year, inviting participants to predict rainfall amounts in Tucson, Phoenix, Flagstaff, El Paso, and Albuquerque during the monsoon season. Zack Guido, the project’s principal investigator, emphasizes that the game fosters community engagement and educates players about weather and climate science.

“People are always curious about the monsoon’s characteristics, but accurately forecasting it is challenging,” Guido explained. “By gamifying the experience, we encourage public involvement in understanding weather patterns in a fun way.”

To participate, players can sign up on the UA’s Arizona Institute for Resilience website. After registration, they will forecast rainfall for each of the five cities over a month, with predictions due by the month’s end. Scoring is based on the accuracy of predictions in relation to historical averages, offering more points for greater deviations.

At the season’s conclusion, participants will compete for $300, $200, and $100 Amazon gift cards awarded to the top three scorers. Monthly winners will also receive $100 gift cards, with opportunities for multiple wins throughout the season.

The monsoon signifies more than just summer storms; it marks a seasonal shift in wind patterns that introduces moisture, leading to thunderstorms. The National Weather Service states the season begins on June 15, but Tucson has yet to witness a significant summer storm.

Guido notes, “As the northern hemisphere summer progresses, the sun’s angle shifts, resulting in hotter days. High-pressure systems dominate, but during the monsoon, this ridge moves northward, facilitating moisture flow from the south and east.”

While the National Weather Service defines the season by calendar dates, historical weather patterns suggest a rise in monsoon activity around the July 4 weekend. The monsoon officially concludes on September 30.

Interestingly, the festival of Día de San Juan, celebrated on June 24, aligns with the monsoon season. This event honors the patron saint of water and is traditionally associated with inviting summer rains. Tucson recently observed this festivity, featuring local leaders and community traditions.

In its 2025 seasonal outlook, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts “Above Normal” precipitation for Tucson, particularly in east-central Arizona, suggesting a potentially active monsoon season ahead.