U.S. Immigrant Population Without Permanent Status Surges to 12.2 Million From 2020 to 2023

The Center for Migration Studies released a report Thursday revealing that the population of individuals in the United States without permanent legal status rose to 12.2 million in 2023. This figure reflects an increase of 2 million from 2020, according to the latest Census Bureau American Community Survey data.

Notably, the states with the highest populations of undocumented individuals include California, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, and Texas, with Florida, New York, and New Jersey experiencing the fastest growth.

The estimate encompasses not only those lacking legal authorization but also immigrants benefiting from temporary legal status. This includes participants in programs like Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), Temporary Protected Status (TPS), and those with pending asylum claims.

The study suggests that estimating this population may become increasingly challenging due to potential changes in census data collection methods. The researchers indicated that mass firings within federal agencies could impact the accuracy of future estimates.

Furthermore, the report addressed concerns regarding the Trump administration’s efforts to enforce mass deportations, raising questions about whether population declines are attributed to such measures or increased fear leading to lower survey response rates.

Contradicting U.S. Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s congressional testimony in May, which estimated over 20 million undocumented individuals, this report offers a different perspective. Other migration think tanks, such as the Migration Policy Institute, reported around 11.2 million undocumented immigrants as of 2021.

A significant insight from the study reveals a substantial increase in Venezuelan migrants, growing from 55,000 in 2013 to 445,000 in 2023. This surge coincided with the Biden administration’s provision of TPS protections for Venezuelans, which safeguards 500,000 individuals from deportation amid ongoing instability in their home country.

Conversely, the Trump administration has sought to terminate TPS for Venezuelans, citing an 18th-century law to enable rapid deportation of individuals suspected of gang affiliations. The Supreme Court has intervened, blocking this law due to due process concerns while permitting efforts to end TPS for certain groups.

The report also highlighted a 1.2 million increase in Central American migrants over the past decade. In response to heightened migration at the southern border, the Biden administration launched a program in January 2023 that allows nationals from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela to obtain work visas and deportation protections. Approximately 532,000 individuals currently participate in this program, although the Trump administration has appealed for its termination.