Phoenix’s Exodus: Maricopa Reaps the Benefits of Young Talent’s Departure

Maricopa is witnessing an unexpected surge in youth population, contrasting sharply with the broader trends in the Phoenix metro area. Nearly 5,000 children and teenagers have settled in the city since 2018, even as Phoenix itself has seen an exodus of 34,000 young residents during the same period, according to recent U.S. Census Bureau analysis.

This demographic shift comes at a time when overall growth rates in metro Phoenix are stagnating. In fact, a significant decline of 36% in the local birth rate has been noted since 2007—the second most drastic drop in the country. With 250,000 new residents moving to the region last year, the impact on school enrollments has been noticeably adverse. Reports indicate that around 20,000 students have departed from Arizona public schools in just two years.

Tom Horne, Arizona’s superintendent, acknowledged the trend of declining student numbers, expressing familiarity with the need to close schools. “I think there’s been a decline. But, you know, I’m used to closing schools,” he commented recently in an interview.

In contrast to the losses seen in municipalities like Scottsdale, Mesa, and Tempe, Maricopa stands out with a net gain of 4,600 youths since 2018. Only Buckeye and Gilbert experienced greater numbers in young residents, with Buckeye achieving a 7.3% growth rate compared to Maricopa’s 6.5%.

This influx of youth is expected to bolster school enrollments in Maricopa, amid declining figures elsewhere. Rick Brammer, an economist, predicted that the local school district could see its enrollment double over the next decade, forecasting significant growth from the current 9,500 students.

MUSD Superintendent Dr. Tracey Lopeman expressed optimism about the district’s capacity to accommodate the growing youth demographic. “MUSD is proud to welcome and support Maricopa’s growing population of young people,” Dr. Lopeman stated. She emphasized the district’s commitment to providing quality education and job opportunities for young residents, highlighting their invaluable contribution to the community.