Democrats Surge Ahead in Tucson’s GOP-Heavy Legislative District 17

As the counting of ballots continues, Democrats are showing strong leads in Legislative District 17, a region near Tucson known for its Republican voter registration dominance. Current results indicate that Democrats are ahead in races for 32 House seats and 15 Senate seats across Arizona, potentially flipping the House and tying the Senate.

In the LD17 House race, Democrat Kevin Volk held a significant lead over incumbent Republican Rep. Rachel Jones, leading by over 6,845 votes at midnight on Election Day. Rep. Cory McGarr trailed by nearly 8,500 votes, with Volk capturing 37% of the vote compared to Jones’s 32% and McGarr’s 31%. “We put in a hell of an effort,” Volk expressed at the Democratic Party’s gathering at Hotel Congress, emphasizing the need for patience as ballots continue to be counted.

In the Senate race for LD17, Democrat John McLean was ahead with 53% against Republican Vince Leach, who garnered 47%. McLean mentioned the competition would likely be tight as results rolled in.

As of midnight, the count reflected a combination of pre-Election Day early votes and some same-day ballots cast in Pima and Pinal counties. Election officials have indicated it will take several days to validate the remaining mail-in ballots, which are subject to a stringent signature verification process.

The overall vote count is not expected to finalize until next week, as voters have until Sunday to address any irregularities with their ballots. LD17 encompasses parts of Pinal County’s Saddlebrooke, and includes communities in Tucson such as Oro Valley and Marana.

Despite Republicans enjoying a 9-point registration advantage in the district, Democrats previously identified it as a key target for possible wins. Notably, in the 2022 elections, significant Democratic candidates, including Mark Kelly and Katie Hobbs, also prevailed in this district.

Looking at neighboring District 16, Democrat Rep. Keith Seaman is narrowly trailing Republican Chris Lopez by 681 votes, while Republican Teresa Martinez leads Seaman by 3,763 votes. This district’s electorate primarily consists of voters from Pinal County, with a minor representation from Northwestern Pima County. Republican Sen. T.J. Shope was leading his Democratic challenger, Stacey Seaman, with 54% of the votes.

In District 23, where Democrats aimed to overturn a Republican seat, Republican Michele Peña was ahead with 16,639 votes, surpassing Democratic Rep. Mariana Sandoval and fellow Democrat Matias Rosales. The district’s demographics show a majority residing in Yuma and rural Maricopa counties, along with a portion in Pima County.

In the Democratic-leaning District 18, Reps. Nancy Gutierrez and Chris Mathis are currently leading their Republican opponent with 40% and 38% of the vote, respectively. This compact district is situated entirely within Pima County. Meanwhile, Democratic Sen. Priya Sundareshan ran unopposed for a second term in this district.

On the other hand, Republican Sen. David Gowan was leading with 60% of the vote in District 19, a heavily Republican area. Republican Reps. Gail Griffin and Lupe Diaz are also ahead of their Democratic challenger in their respective races.

Districts 20 and 21 saw Democratic candidates standing unopposed, with Sen. Sally Ann Gonzales and Reps. Betty Villegas and Alma Hernandez all securing their positions without contest. In District 21, incumbent Rep. Consuelo Hernandez led with 40% against both Democratic Rep. Stephanie Stahl Hamilton and Republican challenger Christopher Kibbey.

As the election results continue to unfold, the dynamics of Arizona’s legislative power could shift considerably, depending on the final count and the remaining ballots.