5 Crucial House Races That Could Shift the Balance This November

With the upcoming election just two months away, the stakes couldn’t be higher for control of the presidency and Congress. Currently, the Democrats hold a slim Senate majority, but Republicans are projected to reclaim control. Conversely, in the House of Representatives, Republicans maintain a narrow nine-seat lead while Democrats show signs of gaining momentum.

The Cook Political Report indicates a tightly contested landscape. Democrats are expected to win 203 seats, while Republicans are projected for 208, leaving 24 seats categorized as “toss-ups.” For Democrats to seize a 218-seat majority, they need to secure 15 of these toss-ups, while Republicans require only 10 seats. Recent polling shows a slight preference among voters for a Democratic-led House, with margins ranging from one to five points.

Here’s a closer look at five crucial House races deemed toss-ups in November:

Arizona’s 1st Congressional District
Incumbent David Schweikert (R) vs. Amish Shah (D)

David Schweikert, a Republican representing Arizona’s 1st District since 2011, faces a challenging re-election campaign. After a narrow victory in 2022, he finds himself a target for Democratic challengers like Amish Shah, who hopes to capitalize on Schweikert’s vulnerabilities.

This district, while historically Republican due to gerrymandering, is substantially influenced by independent voters, who constitute about one-third of the electorate. Although Schweikert has raised over a million dollars more than Shah, the impact of Proposition 139—aimed at guaranteeing abortion access—could sway the electorate, especially given its widespread support. Additionally, the accompanying Senate contest between Democrat Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake is likely to further affect voter sentiment.

California’s 13th Congressional District
Incumbent John Duarte (R) vs. Adam Gray (D)

California’s 13th District, a critical battleground, features a rematch between John Duarte and Adam Gray. Duarte won their first matchup by a slim margin of 3,500 votes, but evolving dynamics suggest higher turnout in November. This rural district shows a Democratic registration advantage, but converting that into votes requires substantial campaign investment.

Gray’s fundraising efforts have been impressive at $2.5 million, though Duarte leads with over $3 million raised. As political scientists emphasize, the high stakes in California’s competitive districts can shape the overall balance of power in the House.

California’s 27th Congressional District
Incumbent Mike Garcia (R) vs. George Whitesides (D)

The 27th Congressional District in northeast Los Angeles has shifted representation from Democrats to Republicans. Mike Garcia, who took the seat in 2020, now faces George Whitesides, an entrepreneur without prior political experience. Whitesides has invested heavily in his campaign, spending over $1.3 million of his own funds.

Despite Garcia’s substantial primary victory margin, recent polling indicates a potential lead for Whitesides. Analysts note the district’s Democratic-leaning tendencies and a crucial registration advantage give the challenger a fighting chance.

California’s 41st Congressional District
Incumbent Ken Calvert (R) vs. Will Rollins (D)

In another rematch, Ken Calvert, a veteran Congressman, faces Will Rollins, a former prosecutor determined to unseat him. Though Calvert won their last encounter by a notable margin, recent polling suggests Rollins could make significant gains. Rollins has effectively raised nearly $7 million, surpassing Calvert’s $5.7 million fundraising total. This sets the stage for a close race, with escalating voter interest in the outcomes.

Colorado’s 8th Congressional District
Incumbent Yadira Caraveo (D) vs. Gabe Evans (R)

The newly competitive 8th District in Colorado, crafted by an independent commission, features Yadira Caraveo, who made history as the first Latina member of Congress. She won her seat by a slim margin and now faces Gabe Evans, a military veteran. Opinion polls indicate a contentious match, with recent surveys showing Evans leading in various measures. Caraveo, with $4.5 million raised, must leverage her financial advantage to fend off the challenge.

As the election approaches, all eyes will be on these pivotal races that may determine the future control of the U.S. House of Representatives.