Trump’s Unproven Allegations: No Surge of Criminals and Mentally Ill Under Biden

Since President Joe Biden took office, the U.S. population has grown by at least 4 million more migrants who entered the United States illegally.

During a debate with Biden on June 27, former President Donald Trump claimed that “millions” of criminals and mental patients were among these migrants. This eye-popping assertion is not supported by government data.

The Trump campaign did not provide evidence to back up the claim. “I’d love to ask him, and will, why he allowed millions of people to come in here from prisons, jails, and mental institutions to come into our country and destroy our country,” Trump said during the debate broadcast by CNN.

Migration experts, including conservatives who favor tighter border controls, argue that Trump’s claims are wildly exaggerated. Dan Stein, president of the far-right Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR), indicated that hyperbole is common in such debates. FAIR, labeled by the Southern Poverty Law Center as a “hate group,” advocates for strict limits on even legal immigration and has links to white supremacist groups.

Precise data on convicted criminals and former residents of mental institutions who enter the U.S. are not maintained by the Department of Homeland Security.

This was not the first time Trump accused Biden of allowing “millions” of criminals and mental patients into the country. Earlier claims by Trump during his New York criminal trial in late May were debunked as “absurd” by Politifact.

Trump has previously stated, without evidence, that 15 million people have entered the country from places like jails and mental institutions. This figure is implausibly high, nearly as many as the top-end estimates of the total number of people living in the country illegally.

Advocacy groups and government agencies do estimate the overall number of migrants entering the U.S. whether they get deported, turned back, or are allowed in while awaiting further processing. The Center for Immigration Studies, a right-wing group supporting tighter immigration policy, estimates the number of illegal immigrants has risen by 6.6 million since Biden took office in January 2021. Like FAIR, this organization is also listed by the Southern Poverty Law Center as a “hate group” due to its connections to white nationalist and antisemitic circles.

Republicans in Congress often cite an 8 million figure for illegal entries, although this does not account for those immediately turned back at the border. Factcheck.org, using federal data, estimated this figure at 4.2 million in February 2023, counting those who either slipped into the country without being caught or were released into the country pending further proceedings.

According to Pew Research Center, about 11 million people were living in the U.S. illegally in 2021. FAIR’s June 2023 estimate put the figure at nearly 17 million. Stein himself admits that FAIR has no evidence to support the notion that any country has recently released prisoners to the U.S., although he suggests the possibility citing the leadership of Venezuela.

In April, Trump claimed that Venezuela’s crime rate had dropped by 67% because criminals were being sent to the U.S. This assertion lacks evidence and vastly exaggerates the drop in crime in Venezuela.

Migration experts deny the widespread entry into the U.S. by criminals and mental patients, emphasizing that individuals with serious records or terrorist affiliations would be ineligible for release into the country. Michelle Mittelstadt, director of communications at the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute, stated there is no evidence supporting Trump’s allegations.

Border security and illegal immigration have been staples of Trump’s campaign. “Building a border wall” was a central promise during his 2016 campaign, and he continues to highlight crimes committed by illegal immigrants. Trump referred to these crimes as “Biden migrant crime” during the debate.

Trump’s repeated claims about “millions” of criminal immigrants went unchallenged by CNN’s moderators or Biden. He asserted that “we had the safest border in the history of our country” before Biden “decided to open up our border” to people from prisons and mental institutions.

Although encounters with individuals having terrorist affiliations are rare, the number of such apprehensions at the border has increased over the past three years. Under Biden, 1,703 migrants with terrorist connections have been apprehended, compared to 1,432 during Trump’s presidency.

Criminology professor Charis Kubrin of the University of California Irvine pointed out that mass shootings by fellow Americans are a more significant concern than crimes committed by people in the country illegally. “Immigrants commit crime at a lower rate compared to their native-born peers,” she said, noting the tendency to create scapegoats.

Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) screens asylum-seekers for criminal records, gang affiliations, and checks names against terrorist watchlists. From October through May (fiscal year 2024), CBP arrested 27,082 migrants with criminal records, compared to 11,501 for fiscal year 2020, the last full year of Trump’s presidency. However, those arrested would not have been released into the country as Trump described.

Stein emphasized that even one crime committed by someone who should not be in the country is too many. “The fact that we can grow our own criminals and we don’t really need to import them isn’t really an answer,” he said.