Maricopa County Races Heat Up as Polls Indicate Tight Contests

By Daniel Stefanski

As the countdown to Election Day begins, Maricopa County political races appear to be tightly contested, reflecting a dynamic electoral landscape. A recent survey by Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) reveals that Republicans and Democrats are neck and neck across various races.

The race for Maricopa County Sheriff showcases a virtual tie, with Republican Jerry Sheridan and Democrat Tyler Kamp each garnering thirty-five percent of the vote. Notably, twenty-four percent remain undecided. Kamp has seen substantial support among independents, leading in that demographic, though thirty-six percent are still on the fence.

In the Maricopa County Attorney race, incumbent Republican Rachel Mitchell edges out Democrat Tamika Wooten by a slim two percent margin (37-35%). A significant portion—twenty-one percent—of voters in this race are undecided. Wooten holds a ten-point advantage with independent voters, revealing potential shifts in voter sentiment.

Turning to the Assessor’s race, Democrat Gregory Freeman currently leads incumbent Republican Eddie Cook by three points (36-33%), with an undecided voter share of twenty-six percent. Freeman’s fifteen-point lead among independents suggests notable crossover appeal, yet forty percent remain uncertain about their choice.

The contest for Maricopa County Recorder also reflects a close contest, with Democrat Tim Stringham ahead of Republican Justin Heap by four percent (38-34%). Here, twenty-two percent of respondents remain undecided. Stringham has a significant fifteen-point lead among independents, indicating a possible shift in voting patterns.

“These races are incredibly close. In each one, the leading candidate is ahead by a low single-digit margin. With a high number of undecideds and more than two months between fielding this poll and Election Day, this poll just doesn’t point to a clear winner,” stated Mike Noble, NPI President & CEO. He emphasized that historical voting data could shed light on potential outcomes as the election approaches.