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2024 election

In Tight States, New Voting Laws Could Shift November’s Election Outcome

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In the tightest states, new voting laws could tip the outcome in November

Editor’s note: This five-day series examines the priorities of voters in key battleground states as they gear up for the 2024 presidential election, exploring implications for the nation’s future. With a close outcome anticipated, these “swing states” often reflect broader national trends.

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. — Early voting is already underway in the first presidential election following the pandemic. The nation watches closely as voters navigate a landscape shaped by fallout from the 2020 election, marked by former President Donald Trump’s refusal to accept the results.

While this election won’t hinge on millions of votes, the outcome will likely be determined in tightly contested states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Changes in ballot access over the past four years—driven by state legislatures and courts—could play a significant role in shaping voter turnout.

Some states, like Michigan, have expanded mail-in and early voting options, building on temporary pandemic measures. Meanwhile, others, such as Arizona and Georgia, have implemented laws that may restrict voting access, raising concerns among voting rights advocates. Laws requiring additional identification, limiting mail-in ballot requests, and curbing drop box availability have emerged, often tied to unfounded claims of election fraud.

“The last four years have been a long, strange trip,” remarked Hannah Fried, co-founder of All Voting is Local. She emphasized that rollbacks in voting access often correlated with Trump’s false narratives about the 2020 election. “Many positive reforms for voters have emerged beyond what we saw during the COVID era,” Fried added.

Tracking of election-related legislation reveals a staggering volume of activity. According to the Voting Rights Lab, over 6,450 bills aiming to modify voting processes have been introduced since January 2021, with hundreds enacted across the country.

Legal expert Justin Levitt warned that last-minute changes and updates can create confusion for voters while stretching the resources of local election officials. “Any voter that is affected unnecessarily is too many in my book,” he stated.

Litigation surrounding the 2020 election continues to impact the current political landscape. Georgia’s substantial voting restrictions, enacted the year following the presidential election, have drawn significant criticism from voting rights groups. The 2021 law reduced the time frame for requesting mail-in ballots and cut the number of drop boxes, amidst claims by Republican leaders asserting it improved election security.

In North Carolina, Republican lawmakers overrode a veto from Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper to implement measures that further complicate mail-in voting. The new restrictions include a requirement for voter identification and provisions that could lead to ballot rejections based on verification issues.

Arizona’s legislature also made headlines by shortening the timeline for voters to rectify signature discrepancies on absentee ballots, garnering backlash for perceived voter suppression.

Despite these challenges, some states have experienced noteworthy expansions in voting access. Michigan, for instance, saw significant ballot access increases following a series of reforms passed by voters amid Republican attempts to restrict absentee voting. A universal vote-by-mail system was also established in Nevada, with strong public support reflected in participation rates.

The political climate in Wisconsin illustrates ongoing tensions surrounding voting methods. Drop boxes, once commonplace, faced scrutiny following Trump’s vocal criticism after the 2020 election. However, recent court decisions have allowed local jurisdictions to determine whether they can use drop boxes again, which election officials view as a step forward.

As the election approaches, local officials express concerns about the rapid changes in voting laws. “These decisions are last-second, over and over again,” lamented Dane County Clerk Scott McDonell, highlighting the potential for voter confusion.

In both Arizona and Pennsylvania, ongoing litigation presents obstacles while voters must navigate complex regulations to ensure their participation. Kathy Boockvar, former Pennsylvania Secretary of the Commonwealth, stressed the importance of voter education amidst all the legal commotion. “Lithigation is confusing,” she noted, urging voters to follow the instructions carefully.

The stakes are high as voters look towards November, with a landscape marked by both restrictions and expansions. How these shifts impact turnout remains to be seen.