How Will Arizona’s Growing Republican Majorities Challenge Governor Hobbs in 2025?

Republicans in Arizona are set to experience a new dynamic in the Legislature, following their substantial gains in both chambers and Donald Trump’s victory in the elections. This strengthening of Republican influence aligns with a prediction of a more unified majority as they head into the 2025 legislative session.

However, their collaboration with Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs, who holds veto power, will be crucial for translating their proposals into law. GOP leaders have indicated a determination to advance key priorities such as tax relief, immigration reform, and expedited election result reporting. Senate President Pro Tem T.J. Shope emphasized that immediate action will be taken to alleviate costs for Arizonans, a promise central to their campaign.

During the last session, Shope noted an increase in discipline among Republican lawmakers, leading to fewer vetoes compared to Hobbs’s record of 143 in her first year. The victories in the legislature have emboldened the party, allowing them to propose legislation aimed at fulfilling campaign promises, including the controversial Proposition 314. This measure will criminalize the crossing of the southern border by migrants and grant local police increased authority related to immigration enforcement.

Despite the Republican focus on their agenda, achieving cooperation with the Democratic leadership on certain critical issues like immigration reform will pose challenges. Hobbs and other Democratic officials have signaled their intent to resist extreme deportation measures advocated by Trump, prioritizing different approaches, particularly in fighting the flow of fentanyl from Mexico.

After the recent election setbacks for Democrats, Hobbs reiterated her commitment to seeking common ground and turned her focus to key state challenges such as affordable housing and water security. Oscar De Los Santos, the incoming House minority leader, outlined priorities aimed at maintaining or increasing school funding amidst the ongoing partisan landscape.

Crucially, both parties acknowledge that water legislation will be a significant focus in the upcoming session, given its importance to all Arizonans. Shope expressed hope for bipartisan agreement on amending election laws to enhance the efficiency of reporting results, an issue that has caused frustration among voters.

Discussions surrounding voting processes are already emerging, with proposals to align Arizona’s laws with those in states like Florida to expedite ballot counting. Though Hobbs has made it clear that she favors sensible measures that uphold voter access, any attempts to suppress turnout may face swift vetoes.

As the legislative session approaches, leaders are preparing for a landscape where culture war issues could dominate discussions. Smith anticipates that Republicans will use legislative proposals to position themselves ahead of the 2026 gubernatorial race while advocating for priority policies through their Freedom Caucus, which has increasingly influenced Republican actions.

Hobbs also faces challenges regarding her state agency director nominations following legal difficulties from the previous year. After bypassing the approval process for her nominees, she now must work within the established framework to secure the necessary Senate endorsements for her appointments.

With a politically charged atmosphere on the horizon, both parties are gearing up to advance their respective agendas. Democrats, still reeling from election losses, are poised to protect vulnerable communities from anticipated legislation that could impact their rights and welfare.