Final Election Results Delayed: Here’s Why It’s Totally Normal

The narrative linking delayed election results to fraud has gained traction since the 2020 elections, but in reality, Arizona and Maricopa County have never delivered final results on election night. Historical data shows that Maricopa County typically reports complete results an average of 13 days after an election, with the fastest turnaround recorded at eight days in 2014 and the slowest at 17 days in 2008.

Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes recently reiterated expectations that results will follow this established timeline, estimating a 10 to 13-day window post-election for comprehensive results. It’s vital to note that results are officially certified by county supervisors within 20 days of the election, and the statewide election canvass is finalized by the secretary of state on the fourth Monday after the election.

Several state-specific factors contribute to this lag in Arizona’s election results. Elections in the U.S. are decentralized, with local counties responsible for managing them. This means a national election consists of approximately 3,200 local elections, each governed by unique rules regarding ballot counting and voter notifications.

Due to the variability in state laws, some states can provide unofficial results much faster than others. Media outlets that “call” races on election night often base their predictions on pre-election polling, especially in states where candidate support is heavily skewed. Arizona, having transitioned from a solidly red state to a competitive battleground, complicates the process, leading to an extended timeline for determining winners.

For the upcoming election, many races in Arizona are expected to have narrow margins. The diverse voter registration landscape—36% Republican, 29% Democrat, and nearly 34% independent—further complicates accurate outcome projections on election night.

It’s critical to understand that results announced on election night are always preliminary. Arizona will begin sharing preliminary results at 8 p.m. on election night, which will include early ballots cast prior to the election. Subsequent counting of ballots cast on Election Day and those dropped off will occur, resulting in additional delays as voting data must be transported and processed.

The process for confirming official results is meticulous, involving not just counting votes but also ensuring election integrity through audits and record reviews. Provisional ballots, for voters unsure of their registration status, have a five-day window post-election to be verified, potentially adding to the counting timeframe.

Moreover, recent legislation mandates that early ballots dropped off on Election Day be counted before they can be delivered to central facilities for verification. This rule, proposed by legislative Republicans, may inadvertently increase delays in result reporting.

Maricopa County, home to nearly 60% of Arizona’s registered voters, faces additional challenges, including a two-page ballot that may slow down scanning and processing, causing longer lines on Election Day. “Having two pages to scan compared to a single page doubles the scanning time,” noted Michael Morley, director at Florida State University’s Center for Election Law.

This issue has historical roots; the belief that slower counting correlates with election fraud gained momentum during the 2020 election amid significant mail-in voting. Nora Benavidez from Free Press highlighted that the misconception of illegitimacy arises when results are not available on election night. Many states were unprepared for the mail-in voting surge, leading to longer wait times.

In Arizona, the problem mainly lies with the increased number of early mail-in ballots returned on Election Day. These ballots can’t be processed until after the polls close, complicating the counting process. If the trend of late ballots continues, the wait for official results could extend yet further, although such delays signify adherence to proper election laws, according to Benavidez.