COVID Surge in Arizona: Could It Soon Be Just Another Common Cold?

As the KP.3 variant becomes the dominant COVID-19 strain in the United States, Arizona reports a slight increase in cases amid incomplete data collection.

This summer, President Joe Biden tested positive for COVID-19 while campaigning and has since returned to his Delaware home for self-isolation. Arizona has experienced a 39% rise in hospitalizations and a 20% increase in COVID-related deaths over the past month, according to Arizona Department of Health Services data.

With the advent of at-home COVID test kits, reporting gaps have emerged. Many positive cases remain unreported to state or county health authorities. “It is hard to make people report things who are doing self-testing,” said Will Humble, executive director of the Arizona Public Health Association. “So we really don’t have very good case data.”

Wastewater testing has been proposed as a solution to track virus prevalence more effectively. However, data from only nine Arizona sites is currently reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). “We still have some pretty decent data with hospital reporting,” Humble mentioned. “We’ve about doubled the number of cases per week since May.”

Despite the increase, the numbers are still below previous years’ surges. Maricopa County Department of Public Health shows an 88% increase in reported cases from June 16 to June 22 compared to last year but overall a 47% decrease for the season.

Arizona has seen seasonal spikes in COVID-19 cases in both summer and winter since the pandemic began. Some attribute this to human activity rather than the virus itself. Humble theorized that antibodies last between 6 to 7 months, which could explain the periodic upticks in cases. This theory suggests a “6-month schedule” for the rise in cases.

The KP.3 variant, from the Omicron lineage, now accounts for over 50% of positive cases in Arizona. The CDC notes that the state continues to have one of the highest percentages of positive cases per week in the nation.

A new vaccine targeting the KP.3 variant is expected by October, featuring both MRNA and non-MRNA options. The CDC recommends that individuals aged 6 months and older receive the updated vaccine when it becomes available. However, this forthcoming vaccine will not benefit those currently at high risk, such as chemotherapy patients. Humble advises these high-risk individuals to take extra precautions and monitor their symptoms closely.

“If you’re at high risk right now, just pay attention to how you are feeling,” Humble reiterated. He noted that early use of COVID treatments like Paxlovid could be more beneficial for those at high risk.

Humble emphasized that while cases are rising, the current situation does not compare to previous surges. “Big picture, it is working its way into becoming a common cold,” he said, explaining that the virus is mutating into a less deadly but more transmissible form.

The Mirror reached out to the CDC and ADHS for comments on how they are addressing data gaps from at-home testing but did not receive a response by the time of publication.

For those looking to get a COVID vaccine, visit vaccines.gov.