Arizona Drought Declarations: Climate Experts Urge Continued Vigilance

Amid Arizona’s record-breaking heat and ongoing drought, climate experts unanimously recommended maintaining the state’s drought emergency declarations during a meeting of the Arizona Drought Interagency Coordinating Group on Monday. This summer marked the hottest in modern history, with officials predicting continued dry conditions linked to the La Niña climate phenomenon.

La Niña, characterized by cooler surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, typically results in warm, dry weather across the state every two to five years. Recent history shows a concerning trend: four out of the last six La Niña winters have been notably warmer and drier than usual. “I would be planning on a drier than normal winter coming up,” National Weather Service meteorologist Mark O’Malley stated, emphasizing the severity of the situation.

Arizona’s recent weather patterns paint a grim picture. September 2024 registered as the hottest September on record, while the prolonged heat wave from September 24 to October 14 stands out as the longest in U.S. history. Moreover, October 2024 has been identified as the driest on record for the Southwest, highlighting the dire outlook heading into winter.

The Interagency Coordinating Group, which operates under the direction of Arizona Department of Water Resources Director Tom Buschatzke, faced no opposition in recommending the continuation of two drought action plans previously established, one of which has remained in effect for 25 years. “The trends are definitely going in a hot and dry direction,” Buschatzke warned. “We can’t expect much of a turnaround on where this drought is going.”

Since Republican Governor Jane Hull declared a drought emergency in 1999, efforts to address water scarcity have evolved. In 2007, Governor Janet Napolitano expanded these efforts, requesting federal assistance and urging water conservation measures throughout the state. The current administration, led by Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs, will receive recommendations for action by December 5, with a deadline to respond by January 1, 2025.

Data shows that Arizona has been experiencing drought conditions since 1994, with 21 of the past 35 years classified as drier than average. “Drought didn’t happen overnight. The rebound wouldn’t happen overnight as well,” stated Brittany Kearney, Marketing Manager for the Arizona Game and Fish Department. The agency is investing millions to transport water to wildlife-affected areas. Prolonged drought is not only a human health concern but also poses significant risks to wildlife, as Kearney noted.

Lower water availability forces animals to congregate around dwindling resources, heightening the risk of predation and disease spread. The endangered Sonoran Desert Tortoise faces particular challenges as its food sources dry up, necessitating longer journeys to find water. To mitigate these issues, the department is leveraging technology like satellite sensors to assess reservoir needs more effectively.

The impact of drier conditions extends beyond wildlife. This year saw over 2,000 wildfires, consuming more than 277,000 acres—almost equal to the total for the past two years combined. Tiffany Davila, spokesperson for the state’s Forestry and Fire Management, indicated that the elongated fire season could lead to earlier ignitions in 2025 due to projected increased temperatures.