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A Fresh Perspective on Trump’s Economic Vision

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Donald Trump

By John Huppenthal |

An analysis of President Trump’s performance during his first three years in office, covering 2017 to 2019, presents a detailed view of his policy impacts prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

During this period, Trump’s administration extended economic growth, resulting in the longest expansion in U.S. history, lasting 10.5 years. Notably, median household income saw a historic increase of $5,420 in 2019, reaching $81,210—a mark that the current administration has yet to achieve.

In terms of job creation, Trump’s first three years saw an impressive addition of 7.1 million full-time jobs, despite the total job creation being recorded at 6.7 million. This achievement stemmed from transforming 400,000 part-time jobs, previously under Obama, into full-time positions.

In stark contrast, the Biden administration has reported the creation of only 1 million full-time jobs in the two-year span from September 2022 to September 2024, primarily focusing on part-time job growth.

Under Trump, job openings surpassed the number of unemployed for the first time, with double the job openings than the unemployment count. This robust job market enabled 160,000 individuals to exit welfare monthly, contributing to a total decline of 8.5 million welfare recipients, representing 19% of the overall group.

Moreover, Trump’s administration facilitated a significant transition, allowing a million people to move off Social Security Disability, changing their status from recipients to contributors to the fund.

Trump’s tenure also resulted in a historic low unemployment rate of 3.5%, the lowest since the Eisenhower era, with only a marginal difference from the all-time low.

The implementation of the USMCA treaty under his leadership established the largest international trade confederation globally. Additionally, Trump set records for Black employment, achieving the lowest unemployment rate for Black Americans at 5.3%, significantly lower than Obama’s lowest recorded rate of 8.0%.

Further, Trump’s administration resulted in personal income tax reductions for families of four earning $53,000 or less, a threshold that classifies such families as wealthy in over 150 nations. This shift drastically improved the wealth distribution, with the bottom 50% of earners seeing a $1.4 trillion increase in wealth, compared to $0.8 trillion under Obama’s final four years.

In a conventional view, Trump’s economic achievements would merit recognition with several Nobel Prizes in economics, given his records in trade, employment reduction, and economic growth.

Looking ahead, Trump aims for a second term characterized by substantial economic growth reminiscent of the roaring 1920s. His proposed strategies may include a significant trade deal with China and potential tariffs designed to enhance financial conditions for businesses, aiming for exponential economic growth in the nearing years.

John Huppenthal was the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction from 2011 to 2015, also serving in both the Arizona State Senate and the Arizona House of Representatives. You can follow him on Twitter here.