3 Arizona Elections That Could Redefine Congressional Power Balance

Key races in Arizona’s primaries, just two weeks away, could help sway the national political landscape in an already turbulent presidential election year.

Kari Lake, who continues to dispute her 2022 gubernatorial loss to Katie Hobbs, is now gearing up for a U.S. Senate run. She faces off against an Arizona sheriff with similar views but who emphasizes his experience over her previous career as a news anchor.

In Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, a crowded Republican primary sees Blake Masters, Abe Hamadeh, and four others battling to replace GOP Representative Debbie Lesko. In the 1st District, two former Republicans lead the pack of Democrats vying to unseat Republican Representative David Schweikert.

U.S. Senate — Republican primary

Though Republicans hold a slight edge in the U.S. Senate, Democrats maintain a one-vote majority with the backing of three independents. The announcement by Democrat-turned-independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema that she won’t seek reelection makes this seat pivotal. The Republican primary victor will face U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego, a Democrat.

“This is absolutely a battleground state,” said Francisco Pedraza, a political science professor at Arizona State University.

Lake, who gained prominence in Arizona with former President Donald Trump’s endorsement in 2021, lost her gubernatorial race by approximately 17,000 votes and has since faced numerous court defeats in her election challenges.

“There are some key differences between Kari Lake and Mark Lamb,” said Pedraza. He indicated that Pinal County Sheriff Lamb, who has distanced himself from unproven election fraud claims, might have an easier time debating Gallego.

Lamb has gained traction with his focus on U.S.-Mexico border issues. Sharing Lake’s stance on increased border wall funding and stricter asylum controls, his experience as a sheriff could be a differentiating factor. “There’s a country-mile difference of experience,” Lamb remarked.

However, Lake holds a significant lead in most recent polls and skipped a June debate, expressing confidence in her chances. Lamb criticized her absence, stating, “I’ve never hired anybody that didn’t show up for a job interview.”

Both candidates oppose a federal abortion ban but have different approaches to state-level regulations. Lake’s shifting stance on Arizona’s near-total abortion ban might attract scrutiny if she faces Gallego.

“That’s the kind of thing a Democratic candidate will pounce on,” Pedraza noted.

8th Congressional District — Republican primary

Six Republicans and one Democrat are in the running to replace Representative Debbie Lesko. Experts anticipate the main competition will be between Hamadeh and Masters.

Hamadeh, who narrowly lost the 2022 attorney general race and later questioned election integrity, faces leaked texts suggesting he dismisses election deniers. Masters, leading a competitive race, shared these texts to portray Hamadeh as manipulative. Despite this, Hamadeh leads in recent polls.

Both candidates align on key issues: strong Second Amendment support, strict border security, and anti-abortion stances. Masters, however, has flip-flopped on abortion policies.

Trailing them are House Speaker Ben Toma, state senator Anthony Kern, and former Representative Trent Franks. Toma, known for controversial legislative initiatives, aims to support school choice expansion and a federal abortion ban.

“I’ve proven that I can get things done under very tight circumstances,” said Toma.

1st Congressional District — Democratic primary

For the six Democrats eyeing Schweikert’s seat, credibility could be their biggest hurdle. Amish Shah, leading in polls, is criticized for past affiliations with Republicans. Marlene Galan-Woods, previously a Republican, emphasizes her long-standing support for pivotal Democratic issues.

Two candidates face unique challenges: Conor O’Callaghan was linked to a fraud investigation, while Andrei Cherny’s former company is under federal scrutiny. Kurt Kroemer, lagging in polls, cites his clean slate as a unique strength.

“He can make stuff up, but I have no negatives,” Kroemer asserted.

Weapons legislation is another point of contention. Kroemer, Cherny, and Andrew Horne support banning assault weapons, a stance Pedraza believes could be detrimental in Arizona.

“We’re in Arizona, you’ve got to keep that in mind,” Pedraza commented.

As early voting approaches, candidates are making their final pushes. Arizonans have until Friday to request early ballots, and mail-in ballots must be returned by July 23. In-person voting is set for July 30.